Tungsten prices surge 310% posing supply challenges

LONDON, United Kingdom, Tungsten prices have surged 310% between January and July 2026, with the APT CIF benchmark rising from approximately US$83/kg WO₃ to US$340/kg WO₃, according to new research from The Oregon Group. Founder Anthony Milewski warns that the global tungsten market faces a structural supply challenge that higher prices alone will not address, with significant implications for Western defense, advanced manufacturing, and semiconductor industries.

Milewski’s analysis, titled "Tungsten Price Shock Signals Deeper Supply Crisis," highlights that China dominates the global tungsten supply, producing 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes mined in 2025. This represents about 79% of world mine production and controls roughly 85% of global APT refining capacity. Despite the surge in prices, the supply response remains constrained, with 11 announced mining projects expected to add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual tungsten capacity by 2030. However, even if all projects are completed on schedule, an estimated 16,000-tonne ex-China primary supply gap remains.

Accessible tungsten mines outside China are projected to satisfy only about 68% of projected ex-China primary demand by 2030. From January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit the acquisition of tungsten materials mined, refined, or produced in China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran, effectively creating two distinct tungsten markets.

Milewski emphasizes, "The issue is no longer whether tungsten prices are high enough to justify new mines. The challenge is whether these mines can be financed, permitted, built, commissioned, and qualified quickly enough to meet Western demand."

The research points out that while tungsten prices have already exceeded the theoretical level required to incentivize virtually all proposed supply in the current project pipeline, the real constraints lie in time and capital. Mines require extensive financing, permitting, construction, and customer qualification, with large projects taking 16 to 30 years from discovery to production. Financiers evaluate projects based on conservative long-term price assumptions, not exceptional spot prices.

Government investment, long-term offtake agreements, and critical-mineral price-support mechanisms are becoming increasingly important to Western tungsten supply development. The urgency is heightened by the US, which has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and remains more than 50% reliant on imports in 2025. From January 2027, the US will prohibit the acquisition of tungsten materials from the countries listed above, adding further pressure to the already constrained ex-China supply chain.

Projects in development outside China include the Sangdong project in South Korea, Hemerdon in the UK, Mt Carbine in Australia, and Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty in Kazakhstan. In Canada, the Mactung project is supported by a US$15.8 million Department of Defense award, and in the US, the Pilot Mountain project has received a US$6.2 million Defense Production Act award. Even with all projects on schedule, the ex-China primary supply gap by 2030 remains approximately 16,000 tonnes.

Milewski concludes that the tungsten market serves as a broader warning for critical mineral markets, noting, "The significance of tungsten is not determined by the size of the market. It is determined by what stops working when secure tungsten supply is unavailable. Defense, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, and energy infrastructure all depend on materials with properties that are extremely difficult to replace."

The full research report, "Tungsten Price Shock Signals Deeper Supply Crisis," is available at The Oregon Group’s website.