Sustainability Investments and Technological Progress Diverge Globally

Bain & Company’s latest report reveals a stark divergence in global investments and technological advancements aimed at sustainability. Over the past decade, private companies and governments invested a staggering $17 trillion in sustainable technologies, yet the outcomes have been uneven. According to the report, only three out of 37 tracked technologies outperformed their forecasts, while the remaining 29 missed their projections.

The report highlights that investments in sustainability reached a record $2.4 trillion in 2025, with 90% of this going towards green energy, buildings, and mobility sectors. These sectors have seen significant scaling and cost reductions, attracting further investments. However, three critical sectors, agriculture, manufacturing and materials, and natural capital, accounting for about 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, received less than 10% of the total investment.

Technological progress has also been inconsistent. Bain's Green Technology Performance Index, which compares actual 2025 deployment with forecasts from 2015, found that only solar, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) outperformed their forecasts. The other 29 technologies underperformed due to challenges in one or more of three critical "gates", technology, behavior, or policy.

Jean-Charles van den Branden, Bain's global head of Sustainability, noted, "Ten years into the Paris Agreement, the world has made commendable sustainability achievements, but this summer's record-breaking heat is a reminder that we need to do more." He emphasized the need for businesses to recognize the age of divergence as an opportunity to make strategic decisions.

For the first time in three years, environmental concern among consumers is on the rise. The Bain report surveyed 7,500 consumers across the US, UK, Italy, Brazil, and Indonesia, finding that 85% are concerned about environmental sustainability, up from 79% last year. The primary drivers of this concern are extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and wildfires. Younger consumers and those in fast-growing markets are particularly worried.

Bain's research also shows that consumers are adopting sustainable habits more frequently. Eighty-three percent of respondents have adopted three or more sustainable lifestyle habits, up from 73% in 2023. Even among those who say they do not care about sustainability, nearly half now practice three or more sustainable habits, compared to 35% in 2023. The main motivations for these behaviors are related to economics, health, or resilience rather than environmental concerns. Consumers are willing to pay 18% more for sustainable products on average, rising to 24% when health benefits are also offered. More than half also say they shop locally more than they did before, primarily to support local businesses and strengthen security of supply.

The report identifies three key forces of divergence in sustainable AI: 1. Executives vs. Consumers: Executives overestimate AI's energy impact 16-fold, while consumers overestimate it 30-fold. Despite these misperceptions, nearly two-thirds of consumers are taking concrete actions, such as limiting their use of AI, switching platforms, or speaking out publicly. 2. Shapers vs. Laggards: Among companies with the highest AI and sustainability maturity, 90% see AI as a major opportunity. In contrast, only 41% of laggards share this view, a decline from 57% last year. 3. Business Leaders vs. Sustainability Leaders: The sustainability executives building the case for sustainable AI and the leaders and general managers making the business decisions have different priorities. Business leaders prioritize financial return, while sustainability professionals focus on regulatory compliance and risk management.

Divergence in the sustainability transition does not indicate failure, but rather an opportunity for companies to identify and scale proven opportunities, anticipate technological, policy, or behavioral triggers, and build resilience against existing disruptions. As the world faces increasing environmental challenges, businesses must adapt and innovate to navigate the complexities of sustainability.

The report suggests that companies should understand the different speeds at which investment, technology, corporate action, and consumer behavior are moving. By doing so, businesses can strategically position themselves to capitalize on sustainable opportunities and mitigate risks.