Business confidence improves slightly but spending remains cautious

New York, Sept. 3, 2026, Business confidence in the United States and globally improved modestly in the third quarter, according to a survey by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA) and Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA). However, the survey also revealed that companies are becoming more cautious about their spending and growth plans amid ongoing economic challenges.

The survey, which polled chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers, and other CPAs in executive and senior management roles across U.S. companies, found that optimism about the U.S. economy increased from 32% in the second quarter to 36% in the third quarter. Optimism regarding the global economy also saw a slight uptick, rising from 19% to 24%. While these figures represent an improvement, they still reflect a cautious business environment.

Despite the enhanced optimism, organizations have scaled back their expansion plans. The percentage of companies expecting to grow over the next 12 months declined from 54% in the second quarter to 49% in the third quarter. Similarly, projected spending on IT, capital investments, and training and development softened compared to the previous quarter.

"This third-quarter data reflects a resilient business community that is navigating through persistent economic headwinds," said Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the AICPA. "While confidence has improved, organizations are maintaining a disciplined approach to investment and growth as they closely monitor inflation, cost pressures, and broader market conditions."

Inflation remains a significant concern for business executives. Nearly 80% of respondents stated that inflation poses a greater risk to their businesses than deflation, with labor costs, materials costs, energy prices, and interest rates cited as key inflationary pressures. Domestic political leadership and the availability of skilled personnel also remain top organizational challenges, while cybersecurity and regulatory requirements have moved higher on the list of concerns.

Hiring sentiment showed signs of improvement during the quarter. The percentage of executives reporting a shortage of employees increased from 28% in the second quarter to 33% in the third quarter, while a greater number of organizations indicated plans to hire, with relatively few reporting hesitation about adding staff. A majority of respondents (53%) believed they had the right number of employees.

"The hiring data is a positive sign of resilience in this quarter's survey," Hood noted. "While talent challenges remain, more organizations are moving forward with hiring plans, which suggests continued confidence in underlying business demand."

Financial expectations also improved slightly, with projected revenue growth increasing from 2.6% in the second quarter to 3.1% in the third quarter, and profit growth rising from 1.1% to 1.5%. However, executives scaled back projected increases in IT, capital, and training investments, indicating a continued focus on financial discipline.

Recession concerns also moderated. Forty-six percent of respondents believed the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or would enter one by the end of 2026, down from 51% in the second quarter. A majority remained uncertain about whether a recession would occur.

The AICPA and CIMA survey serves as a forward-looking indicator, tracking hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. It differs from U.S. Department of Labor employment reports, which reflect hiring activity that has already taken place.

The survey was conducted from August 4-25, 2026, and included 206 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership positions, including chief financial officers, controllers, chief executive officers, and other senior executives.