Barbados Forecasts Economic Growth in 2026-2027

CAIRO, Oct. 12, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- Afreximbank has released its latest Barbados Country Brief, offering a comprehensive analysis of the island nation's economic outlook. The brief highlights that Barbados has exhibited resilient growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP growth averaging 5.6% between 2021 and 2026. The country is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, supported by resilient tourism inflows, a strong pipeline of investment projects, and targeted government support for households and businesses.

Central to this economic transformation is the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme, which concluded successfully in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board approved a new 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement of USD257 million in June 2026 to support the next phase of structural reform. This reflects the international community's confidence in Barbados' policy track record and the market's commitment to building a resilient and diversified economy.

Barbados has made significant strides in fiscal consolidation. Public debt has declined from 104.1% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2023/24 to 96% of GDP at the end of March 2026, backed by a primary fiscal surplus of 4.2% of GDP in fiscal year 2025/26. The government's medium-term framework targets sustained primary surpluses of 3.5% of GDP, placing public debt on a firm trajectory towards the 60% of GDP anchor by fiscal year 2035/36. The IMF assesses the overall risk of sovereign stress as moderate, reflecting Barbados' strong and consistent policy track record.

On trade, the brief points to a steadily strengthening external position. Total goods and services trade grew from USD4.1 billion in 2018 to USD5.5 billion in 2024, with further expansion to USD6.3 billion projected in 2026. Barbados' services balance remains a key pillar of strength, underpinned by tourism inflows that grew 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026, bolstered by a 30% year-on-year jump in cruise ship arrivals.

The brief further highlights developments within Barbados' deep and diversified financial sector. In June 2026, the Central Bank of Barbados launched BiMPay, a national instant payment system enabling round-the-clock settlements and broadening financial inclusion. This represents the latest in a series of measures to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the country's financial infrastructure.