Starlink Mobile Projects $25.35 Billion U.S. Revenue by 2031
News related to:Starlink Mobile · 2 min read
The Besen Group, an independent management consulting firm, has released a detailed five-year business plan analysis for Starlink Mobile, a potential U.S. mobile service provider. The analysis, which incorporates publicly available information, including SpaceX’s second-quarter 2026 results, outlines a hybrid terrestrial and Direct-to-Cell strategy that could significantly boost Starlink Mobile’s revenue and profitability.
According to The Besen Group’s scenario, Starlink Mobile’s U.S. revenue is projected to increase from approximately $1.14 billion in 2027 to $25.35 billion by 2031. This substantial growth is expected to be driven by a combination of terrestrial mobile connectivity, roaming and wholesale partnerships, and Direct-to-Cell satellite connectivity. The analysis suggests that enterprise services will represent approximately 70% of the total modeled revenue by 2031, underscoring the potential importance of enterprise connectivity to the long-term economics of a Starlink Mobile business.
The analysis evaluates four primary components of the potential hybrid network model: 1. Terrestrial Mobile Networks: The primary capacity layer for higher-density locations and areas where conventional mobile infrastructure is available. 2. Direct-to-Cell Satellite Connectivity: A complementary coverage layer for remote areas, transportation corridors, maritime environments, and other locations where terrestrial coverage may be unavailable or economically difficult to provide. 3. Roaming and Wholesale Connectivity: Starlink Mobile could provide satellite network capacity to mobile network operator partners, extending their customers’ connectivity into areas where terrestrial networks are unavailable or limited through wholesale and roaming partnerships. 4. Femtocells and Targeted Capacity: Localized network infrastructure that could provide additional terrestrial capacity in selected consumer, enterprise, industrial, and distributed locations.
Enterprise market opportunity is a key focus of the analysis. The Besen Group evaluates several vertical segments that could potentially benefit from hybrid terrestrial and satellite connectivity, including aviation, maritime, healthcare, energy & utilities, construction, mining, industrial, government, defense, and public safety.
Under the modeled business case scenario, enterprise connectivity is expected to become the largest revenue contributor by 2031.
The financial and operating framework of the analysis includes: - U.S. market sizing, consumer subscriber, and enterprise endpoint forecasts. - ARPU, mobile data traffic, and terrestrial-versus-satellite traffic allocation assumptions. - Roaming, wholesale, satellite/Direct-to-Cell, and ground/core/OSS-BSS network cost structure. - Femtocell deployment, device, SIM/eSIM, and logistics costs. - Capital Expenditures (CapEx), Operating Expenditures (OpEx), and depreciation. - EBITDA, free cash flow, and valuation scenarios.
The Besen Group developed the business plan as an independent analytical framework to help investors, mobile network operators, satellite operators, MVNOs, and infrastructure providers evaluate the potential implications of the emerging terrestrial-satellite convergence.
The analysis also evaluates the capital requirements associated with a potential Starlink Mobile business, including a modeled $23.1 billion spectrum investment as well as ongoing investment in satellite and D2C infrastructure, ground/core/OSS infrastructure, and targeted femtocell deployment.
The Besen Group offers the Starlink Mobile Business Plan Analysis Report in PowerPoint PDF format and the Starlink Mobile Business Plan Analysis Tool in Excel format on a corporate license basis.