Rising Risk of State-Level Attacks on Private Assets Due to Decreased Long-Range Costs

NEW YORK, Sept. 3, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- Egan-Jones has released an analysis highlighting the rising risk of state-level attacks on private commercial assets, as the cost of long-range attacks has dramatically decreased. The firm's examination underscores how such attacks can affect a wide array of stakeholders, including merchants, insurers, and lenders.

According to Egan-Jones, the cost of inflicting significant damage has plummeted. For instance, drones costing around $2,000 each were instrumental in damaging about a third of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers during Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb in June 2025. A more recent strike on the Omsk refinery in July 2026 took place nearly 2,500 kilometers away from Ukrainian-held territory, illustrating the reduced range limitations of these attacks.

These developments have left privately owned commercial assets exposed to unprecedented risks. Between July 18 and August 4, 2026, at least 16 facilities of Wildberries, a retailer responsible for about 45% of Russian online commerce, were targeted. The total floor area struck over 18 days amounted to 2.0 million square meters, which is about 4% of the North American space reported by Amazon in its latest annual filing.

The financial impact of such attacks is significant and multifaceted. Egan-Jones notes that the initial loss of assets is felt primarily by the platform operators and their merchants. Eleven days before the first strike, Wildberries revised its terms to disclaim liability for goods destroyed in force majeure events, effectively shifting the cost burden onto sellers and small merchants. Insurers took a share but declined the balance, leaving lenders with the responsibility for the physical loss of dispersed borrowers.

Egan-Jones further explains that the cost of defending against such attacks is prohibitive. Passive hardening is not viable at scale, and defenders pay anywhere from 20 to 600 times the unit cost of an attacker. The firm advises asset-heavy private positions holders to examine their state-level exposure and document critical details such as site concentration, replacement lead times, war and hostile-act exclusions, contractual loss allocation, and counterparty pass-through.

One leading indicator of state-level exposure is whether a business's product line or contract can be characterized as supporting a state's military effort. Wildberries became a target after listing drone components in its catalog, illustrating the potential vulnerabilities of even non-military enterprises.

Egan-Jones concludes that while deterrence among nuclear states remains intact, the ability to inflict damage has shifted to non-traditional actors, making state-level conflict risk a reality for commercial infrastructure. The firm notes that losses can now be inherited by parties that have never been directly struck, highlighting the far-reaching implications of this new threat landscape.

Founded in 1995, Egan-Jones is a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) that provides timely and accurate credit ratings and proxy services.