New Zealand Struggles to Reach Smoke-Free Goal Despite Progress
News related to:We Are Innovation · 3 min read
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, September 29, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- New Zealand is making significant strides in its bid to become smoke-free, with the adult smoking rate falling to 6.8%, a number that is significantly close to the 5% threshold for claiming smoke-free status. According to research published in The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, the progress accelerated as vaping became a mainstream alternative to cigarettes, following the introduction of an adequate regulatory framework.
Despite these achievements, around 300,000 New Zealand adults still smoke, and the smoking rates remain particularly high among Māori populations, older age groups, and people from more disadvantaged socioeconomic contexts. Many of these individuals have not switched to vaping, and there is little reason to assume they will all do so.
Sweden, which has already crossed the smoke-free threshold, offers a valuable lesson. The Scandinavian country has seen smoking rates fall by around two-thirds since 2008, while smoking across the European Union remains far higher. One of the most striking comparisons comes from EU migrants living in Sweden, whose smoking rate is around 7.8%, compared with roughly 24% in their countries of origin. This difference strongly suggests that the policy environment matters.
Sweden's success is attributed to the range of lower-risk nicotine alternatives available to adults. The country's 2022 law on tobacco-free nicotine products introduced an 18-plus age limit, labelling requirements, and rules governing who can sell these products. It did not respond by banning the category outright but created a legal framework that preserved adult access while putting safeguards around youth use.
New Zealand has already pursued a similar principle with vaping, allowing adult access while tightening protections for young people where needed. The Lancet's study found that youth vaping declined following stronger youth-focused rules. This approach is more sensible than pretending prohibition eliminates demand.
We Are Innovation commissioned an Ipsos survey of 1,000 Swedish ex-smokers, and the results highlight the importance of choice. Among female ex-smokers surveyed, 56% used nicotine pouches, making them the most popular alternative in that group. Nicotine pouches were also the leading choice among former smokers aged 18 to 34. Across respondents, 89% said the right flavour mattered, while 61% said it was important that alternatives cost less than cigarettes.
These findings underscore a basic reality of smoking cessation that policymakers sometimes overlook: smokers are not a single, uniform group. Some prefer vaping, some do not want to inhale anything, some dislike devices, and some respond to particular flavours, formats, or price points. If the goal is to move people away from combustible tobacco, the more suitable alternatives adults have, the greater the chance that one of them will work.
Nicotine pouches could be a valuable addition to New Zealand's smoke-free strategy. They involve no smoke, no vapour, and no device, offering a fundamentally different option for smokers who have not taken to vaping. However, they should not be unregulated. Sweden's approach is instructive here. Its 2022 law on tobacco-free nicotine products introduced an 18-plus age limit, labelling requirements, and rules governing who can sell them. It did not respond by banning the category outright but created a legal framework that preserved adult access while putting safeguards around youth use.
New Zealand has already shown that pragmatic, evidence-based harm reduction can produce results. Vaping helped accelerate the decline in smoking because it gave smokers another way out. The country should now apply that same logic to the final stretch. If hundreds of thousands of adults are still smoking, policymakers should be asking what additional alternatives could realistically help them stop. Nicotine pouches deserve to be part of that conversation. A legal, adults-only framework with clear product standards, age restrictions, and youth protections would not undermine New Zealand's smoke-free strategy but extend it.
Sweden's experience suggests that the final mile is not achieved by narrowing adult choice but by expanding the number of credible alternatives to cigarettes. New Zealand is already close. The next step should be to make sure the remaining smokers have more than one route out.