iEmergent's 2025 Mortgage Forecasts Closely Track Actual Data

DES MOINES, Iowa, Sep 16, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- iEmergent, a forecasting and advisory services firm for the financial services, mortgage, and real estate industries, has validated the accuracy of its 2025 U.S. mortgage forecasts against actual Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. The analysis, which uses final 2025 HMDA data released by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council on June 23, 2026, shows that iEmergent's forecasts closely track real-world outcomes.

The company's 2025 purchase loan forecasts for the nation's top 30 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) averaged well above 90% accuracy when compared to 2025 HMDA actuals. This high level of accuracy reflects the strength of iEmergent's bottom-up forecasting approach, which provides lenders with a dependable line of sight into where mortgage opportunities are forming, market by market.

iEmergent's forecasts also accurately predicted the distribution of loans among different borrower segments. The company's fourth-quarter 2024 forecast produced the following national-level accuracy rates by borrower segment: - Asian borrowers: 107.3% accuracy - Black borrowers: 96.3% accuracy - Hispanic borrowers: 90.5% accuracy - Native American and Pacific Islander borrowers: 83.8% accuracy - Non-Hispanic white borrowers: 89.4% accuracy

The accuracy of these forecasts is attributed to iEmergent's proprietary, bottom-up model, which measures the Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate and the Homebuyer Pool. This demand-driven approach provides a more accurate picture of mortgage market dynamics compared to traditional top-down, supply-side forecasting models.

The analysis covers every geographic level, from national down to individual census tracts. At the census tract level, iEmergent's 2025 forecast was within 10 loans of actual volume in more than 64.3% of the nation's 84,414 census tracts. Widening the margin to 15 loans, the forecast was accurate for 78.6% of all tracts.