Holiday Spending Expected to Exceed $1 Trillion But Comes with Financial Risks

MANALAPAN, N.J., Oct. 23, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- Holiday retail sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The forecast predicts that retail sales during November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, reaching approximately $1.013 trillion. However, strong consumer spending does not necessarily mean household budgets are free from financial pressure.

The NRF's annual consumer survey found that 56% of holiday shoppers say the state of the economy will affect their spending plans. For Navicore Solutions, a national nonprofit financial counseling organization, these findings highlight an important distinction: the ability to complete a purchase is not always the same as the ability to comfortably repay it.

Affordability is already influencing holiday shopping habits. Among consumers who say economic conditions will affect their plans, 43% expect to shop for sales more frequently, 31% plan to comparison shop online more often, and 29% expect to use coupons more frequently. NRF also found that 43% of shoppers plan to begin shopping before November, with half of those early shoppers citing the opportunity to spread purchases across their budgets.

Spreading purchases across several pay periods may help households manage holiday expenses, but using credit to finance those purchases creates obligations that can continue well after the holidays. Consumers should be particularly mindful when using credit cards or buy now, pay later (BNPL) services for multiple purchases.

Adobe Analytics forecasts that BNPL services will account for $21.3 billion in online spending during November and December, an increase of 6.6% from last year. Adobe also projects that 82% of BNPL spending will occur through mobile devices.

Consumers using multiple BNPL arrangements may find themselves making several payments at the same time that rent or mortgage payments, utilities, insurance, groceries, and existing debt payments are due. Credit-card purchases can create similar challenges when balances accumulate interest. Navicore encourages consumers to look at the combined cost of their holiday purchases and consider how those obligations will fit into their January and February budgets before committing to additional spending.

Warning signs that holiday spending may be exceeding a household's financial capacity include using credit to cover essential expenses while purchasing gifts, shopping without tracking the total amount spent, opening new accounts simply to finance additional purchases, or relying on minimum credit-card payments after the holidays. Consumers should also be cautious about relying on expected bonuses, tax refunds, or other income that has not yet been received to repay holiday purchases. Financial circumstances can change, leaving little room for unexpected expenses. For households already carrying credit-card balances, additional seasonal purchases can make repayment more difficult and increase the amount paid in interest.

Navicore Solutions is a national nonprofit organization dedicated to strengthening the financial well-being of individuals and families through education, guidance, advocacy, and support. Certified counselors provide financial assessments, credit counseling, housing counseling, and structured repayment guidance to help consumers understand their options and work toward greater financial stability.