Global Trade Surges as AI Infrastructure Boom Drives Growth

The global race to build infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a significant boom in world trade, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker. Despite higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional recovery seen during the early stages of the pandemic. The report, based on more than 30 million data points, highlights that the demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, is a major driver of this growth.

AI buildout has become a powerful driver of global trade, with trade in AI-enabling goods accounting for 42% of goods trade growth in 2025. This share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

East Asia and the Pacific led trade growth during the first five months of 2026, with the value of its trade rising 24% compared to the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% growth, and Sub-Saharan Africa saw a 11% increase. East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, contributing to the growth of strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom.

While the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes, the effects remained concentrated, hitting economies dependent on the Strait particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Trade policy also created a separate headwind, with U.S. tariffs reaching their highest levels in decades. However, the global impact of these tariffs was limited. The United States accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of U.S. imports were exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Many countries also avoided broad retaliation, expanding trade links with alternative markets.

The outlook for global trade has improved. Global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade. This outlook is now stronger than it was before the 2025-26 U.S. tariff increases and the Iran war, suggesting that recent shocks have had a smaller impact on the global economy than many expected.

The report also notes a significant change in international flows, with the weakening of U.S., China ties. However, the global impact remains surprisingly small. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S., China share of international business investment is even smaller, less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China, challenging the idea that U.S., China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.

Beyond trade, the report tracks the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment. All four flow categories contributed to the new record, becoming more international. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalized.

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a concise report and interactive website that provides regular updates on globalization and global trade. It complements the renowned DHL Globalization Report, published regularly since 2011. The Tracker analyzes more than 30 million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It includes interactive online charts that make it easy for users to explore trends by region, geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. It also supports easy data and chart downloads for offline use. The DHL Globalization Tracker is available, together with further resources, at dhl.com/globalization.