AGA projects flat sports betting growth for 2026 NFL season

WASHINGTON, Sept. 4, 2026 /CourierPR/ -- The American Gaming Association (AGA) has projected that $29.5 billion in legal bets will be placed on the 2026 NFL season across U.S. regulated sportsbooks, marking a flat year-over-year growth compared to the $29.4 billion wagered in 2025. This projection comes as "prediction markets" are rapidly expanding, offering backdoor sports betting in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., raising concerns about the potential loss of state gaming tax revenue.

Millions of Americans continue to rely on legal, state-regulated sportsbooks to enhance their engagement with the NFL games. However, the growth in legal sports betting has stagnated due to the widespread launch of backdoor betting on prediction markets, which operate outside the regulatory frameworks of 40 jurisdictions where sports betting is legal. Additionally, 11 states have chosen not to legalize sports betting, further complicating the landscape.

According to Bill Miller, President and CEO of the AGA, "The NFL season is set to kick off, and millions of fans are eagerly looking forward to placing their bets. Since the Supreme Court's 2018 decision, legalized sports betting has seen significant growth. However, the widespread adoption of backdoor sports betting on prediction markets has halted this progress."

These platforms, which include Kalshi and Polymarket, are not subject to the same regulations as legal sportsbooks. They operate without the need to follow state and tribal gaming laws or pay the associated state gaming taxes. This has raised concerns about the potential loss of $1.3 billion in state gaming tax revenue since 2025.

The legal, regulated gaming industry supports approximately 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion annually in tax revenue for community projects such as education and infrastructure. In contrast, prediction markets are estimated to have siphoned off a significant portion of potential state gaming tax revenue.

As millions of Americans prepare for the NFL season, the AGA is encouraging fans to differentiate between licensed sportsbooks and prediction markets, emphasizing the importance of using legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators. Miller stressed, "These 'prediction market' platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment. They are, in fact, forms of entertainment, and consumers, especially young people, are placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides."

The AGA's estimate for 2026 is based on national handle growth to date and includes preseason games, futures bets as early as March, the playoffs, and Super Bowl LXI in February 2027.